BREAKING THE IMPASSE:
FORGING AN EU LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE ON CLIMATE CHANGE

World Summit Paper #3; a policy paper by Hermann E. Ott and Sebastian Oberthür

The Kyoto Protocol has the potential to provide an important basis for the further development of international climate policy in the next millennium. Full implementation by industrialised countries of their differentiated targets would not only lead to a stabilisation of emissions at 1995 levels, but it would also ensure a reversal of current emission trends. However, two years after its adoption there continues to be much uncertainty about the potential effectiveness of the Protocol. Concerns regarding effectiveness are in large part related to the high threshold for its entry into force.

The more progressive industrialised countries (primarily EU member states) are now waiting for the US to exercise responsibility and join forces with them in fulfilling their obligations. However, the US and other laggard countries such as Australia are attempting to stall action in the international arena in order to extract more concessions within the ongoing negotiation process. From their perspective, the longer the delay in reaching agreement and commencing action, the easier it will be for them to argue for weaker obligations on the basis that existing ones are no longer realistic nor viable.

If the EU Leadership Initiative, proposed in this policy paper, can be successfully established, it will catalyse numerous opportunities. It will reinvigorate the Kyoto Protocol and will create further incentives to governments to implement effective policies and measures to mitigate climate change. It will also generate much needed public awareness to demonstrate that economic well-being can be improved without having to burn increasing amounts of fossil fuels.

[ pdf; 34 pages ]